New models predicting where to find Australian megafauna fossils
|Approach to identify potential fossil areas with combined models |
[Credit: Sebastián Block et al., PLoS One]
"A chain of ideal conditions must occur for fossils to form, which means they are extremely rare - so finding as many as possible can tell us more of what the past was like, and why certain species went extinct," says project leader Professor Corey Bradshaw, Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change at the University of Adelaide.
"Typically, however, we use haphazard ways to find fossils. Mostly people just go to excavation sites and surrounding areas where fossils have been found before. We hope our models will make it easier for palaeontologists and archaeologists to identify new fossil sites that could yield vast treasures of prehistoric information."
Research student and lead author Sebastian Block and the team made use of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology. They modelled past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation, and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field. They applied their techniques to a range of Australian megafauna that became extinct over the last 50,000 years, such as the giant terror bird Genyornis, the rhino-sized 'wombat' Diprotodon, and the marsupial 'lion' Thylacoleo.
To produce the species distribution models of these long-extinct animals, the researchers used 'hindcasted global circulation models' to provide predicted temperature and rainfall for the deep past, and matched this with the estimated ages of the fossils.
"What we did was build a probability map for each of these layers – the species distribution, the right sort of geological conditions for fossil formation (for example, sedimentary rocks, or caves and lakes), and the ease of discovery (for example, open areas rather than dense forest)," says Professor Bradshaw. "We combined each of these for an overall 'suitability for fossil discovery' map."
"Our methods predict potential fossil locations across an entire continent, which is useful to identify potential fossil areas far from already known sites," says Kiel University's Professor Ingmar Unkel. "It's a good 'exploration filter; after which remote-sensing approaches and fine-scale expert knowledge could complement the search."
The model showed areas south of Lake Eyre and west of Lake Torrens in South Australia and a large area around Shark Bay, Western Australia and other areas in south-western Australia with a high potential to yield new megafauna fossils.
Author: Robyn Mills | Source: University of Adelaide [April 08, 2016]